The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its Annual Energy Outlook 2009, which predicts that total coal-based electricity generation will increase nearly 1% annually through 2030 to about 2.3 billion kWh. According to the report, coal will maintain its position as the largest fuel provider for US electricity, with EIA anticipating the addition of 184 GW of coal capacity between 2007 and 2030. Coal remains the largest source of electricity generation, however, the outlook forecasts that coal’s share of the electricity generation market will stand at 47% in 2030, down from the 55% figure predicted in the 2008 outlook. That projection is predicated on an expected dramatic rise in renewable sourced generation due to federal tax incentives and fuel standards expected to impact generation in many states.

Growth in coal production is expected to average 0.6% nationally between 2007 and 2030, reaching 1,216 Mt, with Western coal production providing much of the additional output from mines in Wyoming, Montana and North Dakota. Also, a surge in demand for higher sulphur interior region coal (Illinois, Indiana and western Kentucky) is expected, as coal plants increasingly retrofit existing units with flue gas desulphurisation technologies to reduce emissions.

Elsewhere, the preliminary forecast predicts that 19 Mt of coal will be needed for domestic coal-to-liquid (CTL) fuel production in 2030. According to the report, about half of the Western US’ additional coal production will be used as a feedstock for new CTL plants.