In its latest State of the Market report, SNL Metals & Mining states that if early production announcements for the three months to end-March turn out to represent the entire mining industry, then there has been a significant fall in quarter-on-quarter production for the three most important mined metals: gold, copper and iron ore. However, the production results published to-date suggest that gold and iron ore production is still higher than the year-ago quarter, up almost 12% in the case of iron ore.

According to the SNL Metals & Mining database, 188 companies have already announced gold, copper and iron ore output for the March quarter for which comparable data is also available for the December 2014 quarter. In the report for the three months to end-March, published May 18, SNL notes that the 46 most significant gold producers — those with a March quarter output of over 50,000 oz — reported a combined 11.2 Moz, compared with an equivalent 12.5 Moz in the December 2014 quarter, equivalent to a fall of over 10%. Much of this overall decline in reported gold production was due to a significant quarter-on-quarter decline in output from AngloGold Ashanti, Goldcorp, and Sibanye Gold. The three miners registered a combined fall in production of 476,000 oz compared to the linked quarter.

Another four producers registered quarter-on-quarter reductions in gold production of over 100,000 oz. Compared to the December 2014 quarter, Barrick Gold Corp, whose production of 1.39 Moz was the largest for the March quarter, registered a fall of 137,000 oz. Centerra Gold Inc saw production drop 130,553 oz, output by Polymetal International fell 113,000 oz and Freeport-McMoRan reported a 109,000 oz decline. The greatest percentage declines in production compared to the December 2014 quarter were registered by Centerra at 43%, Polymetal’s output fell 38% and Russia-based Petropavlovsk booked a 33% decline in gold output. While registering a quarter-on-quarter decline in gold production, the top 46 companies still reported a 3% year-over-year rise in aggregate output.

By mid-May, SNL had recorded production data for the March quarter from 49 copper-producing companies. The 22 largest listed companies — companies with quarterly output of over 10,000 t — had combined production of 2.41 Mt, a decline of 4% on the previous quarter, amounting to 88,807 t. Of these largest producers, 13 companies, or about 59%, reported lower output between the December and March quarters. Glencore booked the largest absolute decline in output compared to the previous quarter, amounting to 46,700 t; Antofagasta’s output was down by by 41,000 t; and Freeport-McMoRan’s output fell by 37,648 t. Nevsun Resources booked the largest quarter-on-quarter percentage decline of 28%. Of the top seven copper producers in the March quarter, only the largest, BHP Billiton, reported a quarter-over-quarter increase in production, which was up 9%, or 36,300 t, to 460,000 t.

There has been a welcome decline in iron ore production. According to SNL data, 15 companies have reported iron ore output of over 1 Mt in the March quarter. These companies produced a total of 308.5 Mt, compared to 324.4 Mt in the preceding quarter — equivalent to a fall of 5% or 15.84 Mt. However, this quarterly tonnage represents a year-on-year increase of almost 12%. Of the leading iron ore producers, only BHP Billiton reported a quarter-on-quarter increase in production, but all of them saw significantly higher year-on-year output. BHP Billiton reported a rise in iron ore production of 5% compared with the December quarter, rising 2.63 Mt to 58.98 Mt, and 20% on the year-ago quarter. The company has driven production for the first three quarters of fiscal 2015 to a record 172.4 Mt, despite iron ore prices sinking to record lows.