On the opening day of MINExpo INTERNATIONAL on Monday, senior mining executives described the state of the mining industry as positive both in the US and globally, as growth in the developing world continues to fuel demand for coal, minerals and the equipment needed to mine them. Yesterday, IM spoke with the Presidents of Caterpillar, Caterpillar Mining, Atlas Copco Mining and Construction, Sandvik Mining and Construction and others, who were also confident of the industry’s strength.That was also the consensus from chief executive officers of US coal, mineral and mining equipment companies here in Las Vegas to attend MINExpo INTERNATIONAL, the world’s largest mining exhibition. The quadrennial exhibition is hosted by the National Mining Association (NMA), the Washington, D.C.-based trade group for the US mining and machinery industry.
“MINExpo 2008, which is our biggest show ever and sold out the fastest, is a confident statement about near-term conditions in our industry,” said NMA President and CEO Hal Quinn. “Our member companies expect US coal exports to triple over the next two years, global demand for metals to increase more than 5% in each of the next three years, and world demand for mining equipment to increase by about 6% annually over the same period.”
Other mining executives expressed confidence in the durability of the current cycle, now in its fifth year. Market fundamentals are expected to yield record US coal demand in 2008, continued strength in metals and minerals mined in the US and another year of strong worldwide demand for mining equipment and machinery. Overriding higher production costs, an ailing domestic economy and slower growth in the global economy, said mining executives, is the fact that world coal and mineral production is still struggling to keep pace with demand from rapidly developing countries. Industry analysts expect global mining output to grow by almost 4% in 2009 and 2010.
Tim Sullivan, President and CEO of Bucyrus International and Chairman of MINExpo, said his company’s products and services “continue to be driven by high international commodity prices and strong markets for commodities mined by Bucyrus machines.”
China, India and Brazil, among other nations, are feverishly building power plants and urban infrastructure that have sparked a boom in markets for coal, metals and related commodities. Mining equipment manufacturers are likely to keep order books full as they expand production to meet growing demand for shovels, trucks and underground machinery. US mining equipment producers represent approximately one-fifth of the global market.
US coal producers, increasingly responding to global conditions, see strong growth continuing into 2009 for exports of both metallurgical and steam coal. Coal has been the world’s fastest growing fuel in each of the past five years, as its share of the world’s electricity market is projected to rise to 44% in 2015 from 41% in 2005. “This is not a short-term market cycle,” said Mike Quillen, Chairman and CEO of Alpha Natural Resources. “It is a rebasing of the value of Btus in a new energy-short world led by a growing global economy.”
Markets for US minerals and metals, including gold, copper and uranium, are also likely to remain strong even as commodity prices moderate from unprecedented highs. Industry executives and most analysts anticipate copper prices will rebound from a correction thanks to tight supply, a weak dollar and continued demand from China. Iron ore demand, which has climbed dramatically in recent years, may moderate from the spreading economic downturn. Demand for uranium is expected to increase to 325 Mlb by 2025, up from 150 Mlb today. Industry observers expect demand for potash, sulfate and chloride will climb 3% or better annually over the next few years.
“Looking forward, there are different opinions about how long we can expect to ride this super cycle,” said Rio Tinto Minerals’ President and Chief Executive Officer and NMA Chairman Gary Goldberg. “While the outlook may be gloomy for mature economies, it’s never been brighter for the developing world. From 2007 to 2010, China’s demand for copper, nickel, zinc and platinum is expected to double. In fact, Chinese manufacturers will soon account for more than half the global demand for a majority of these metals. We are also seeing the same growth trends for industrial minerals like borates, talc, potash and titanium dioxide,” he said.
