There are “few convincing signs” that supply of metals will match booming global demand for them, says a new report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Washington-based IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook says recent data suggest “base-metal prices are only about halfway through the current period of trend price increases.” The IMF attributes the metals super cycle, recovering smartly following the 2008 recession, to a combination of inadequate capital investment in new mines and declining productivity stemming from technological and geological restraints for some metals.

The IMF Outlook confirms that China’s metals demand, the key driver, has stabilised at a high level following the government’s decision last year to stimulate infrastructure development. China’s economy, which this year is expected to grow at 10.5%, will grow by 9.6% in 2011. The IMF also noted the beginnings of a recovery in metals demand in developed countries.

In related news, consultancy Wood Mackenzie predicted last week that China would overtake Japan as the world’s largest steam coal buyer next year. “The global coal trade will grow significantly during the next few decades,” said the firm’s coal analyst Jeff Watkins at a conference last week in Amsterdam. He predicted seaborne demand for steam coal will increase from 680 Mt today to 1,187 Mt by 2025.

An NMA-commissioned report that shows mining supports 1.8 million American jobs across the country was distributed broadly to the news media and to Capitol Hill offices Monday. The report, The Economic Contributions of U.S. Mining in 2008, produced by PricewaterhouseCoopers for NMA, documents that more than 564,000 Americans are directly employed by an estimated 15,000 US mining operations and their support and transportation providers who together accounted for a $107 billion payroll in 2008.

“This report clearly demonstrates mining’s value to individual states and to the entire economy,” said NMA’s President and CEO Hal Quinn. The report also shows mining pays very well, with annual average wages and salaries in 2008 for the nation’s coal ($72,200) and metal ($75,900) miners exceeding the average wage for all US occupations by more than 60%.

Moreover, in a half dozen states, mining contributed significantly to local economies. Those states with the largest share of their economy attributed to mining include Wyoming (14%), West Virginia (11.6%), Montana (7%), Nevada (5.6%) and Kentucky (4.6%).

To promote the report, NMA also advertised in National Journal and Daily Caller, including electronic advertising that will run through next week.