EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; China and India account for half of the total

Posted by Daniel Gleeson on 26th September 2011

2011_12_figure1.jpgInternational Energy Outlook 2011 (IEO2011) released today by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) presents updated projections for world energy markets through 2035. Worldwide energy consumption grows by 53% between 2008 and 2035 in the Reference case, with much of the increase driven by strong economic growth in the developing nations especially China and India. Acting EIA Administrator Howard Gruenspecht: “China and India account for half of the projected increase in world energy use over the next 25 years. China alone, which only recently became the world’s top energy consumer, is projected to use 68% more energy than the US by 2035.” China and India lead the growth in world demand for energy in the future. The economies of China and India were among those least affected by the worldwide recession. They continue to lead world economic growth and energy demand growth in the Reference case. In 2008, China and India combined accounted for 21% of total world energy consumption. With strong economic growth in both countries over the projection period, their combined energy use more than doubles by 2035, when they account for 31% of world energy use in the IEO2011 Reference case. In 2035, China’s energy demand is 68% higher than U.S. energy demand.

Renewable energy is projected to be the fastest growing source of primary energy over the next 25 years, but fossil fuels remain the dominant source of energy. Renewable energy consumption increases by 2.8% per year and the renewable share of total energy use increases from 10% in 2008 to 15% in 2035 in the Reference case. Fossil fuels, however, continue to supply much of the energy used worldwide throughout the projection, and still account for 78% of world energy use in 2035 While the Reference case projections reflect current laws and policies as of the start of 2011, past experience suggests that renewable energy deployment is often significantly affected by policy changes.

Natural gas has the fastest growth rate among the fossil fuels over the 2008 to 2035 projection period.

World oil prices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand.

Other report highlights include:

  • From 2008 to 2035, total world energy consumption rises by an average annual 1.6% in the IEO2011 Reference case. Strong economic growth among the non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) nations drives the increase. Non-OECD energy use increases by 2.3% per year; in the OECD countries energy use grows by only 0.6% per year.
  • World coal consumption increases from 139 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 209 quadrillion Btu in 2035, at an average annual rate of 1.5% in the IEO2011 Reference case. In the absence of policies or legislation that would limit the growth of coal use, China and, to a lesser extent, India and the other nations of non-OECD Asia consume coal in place of more expensive fuels. China alone accounts for 76% of the projected net increase in world coal use, and India and the rest of non-OECD Asia account for another 19% of the increase.
  • Electricity is the world’s fastest-growing form of end-use energy consumption in the Reference case, as it has been for the past several decades. Net electricity generation worldwide rises by 2.3% per year on average from 2008 to 2035. Renewables are the fastest growing source of new electricity generation, increasing by 3.0% and outpacing the average annual increases for natural gas (2.6%), nuclear power (2.4%), and coal (1.9%).

International Energy Outlook 2011 is available at: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/.