Since 1999, Behre Dolbear has compiled annual political risk assessments of the key players in the global mining industry. Over time, the group says its assessment indicates “a positive correlation between the growth of a nation’s wealth and the prosperity of its mining industry”, adding “only when a country recognises its critical need to adapt and restructures burdensome policy – will it truly optimise this economic potential.” In the latest 2013 ranking of countries, composite results were compiled, incorporating scores reflecting the main categories of economic system, political system, social issues, permitting delays, corruption, currency stability, and tax regime.

Each criterion is rated on a qualitative scale from 1 (worst) to 10 (best) that reflects conditions that promote investment growth in the mining sector. Accordingly, the maximum score attainable for a country is 70 points. The five highest-scoring countries are Australia (56, down 1 point); Canada (52, unchanged); Chile (51, unchanged); Brazil (45, unchanged); and Mexico (43, unchanged). The five lowest-scoring countries are Russia (16, unchanged); DRC (18, down 1 point); Kazakhstan (22, unchanged); and Papua New Guinea (21, down 1 point). While there was little movement at the ends of the survey, there was substantial change in the middle. The most notable change was seen in Mongolia, which dropped a total of 5 points since 2011. Behre Dolbear stated: “Mongolia’s volatile political climate has taken a significant toll on mining policy and drastically affecting the level of foreign investment.” Other countries, which fell in the survey were Argentina, India, Kazakhstan and the DRC, each falling 1 point. Canada, the US and Colombia all saw an increase in their ranking.

 By region, the company stated: “North America’s well-defined mineral endowment continues to attract significant capital investment despite regulatory hindrances due to its competitive standing relative to the quality or its resources, the capability of its existing infrastructure enabling products to access markets, and through the capacity of its human capital resources.” In Central and South America, select countries with strong mining industries have recently received ever increasing interest and benefits from rising commodity prices. However, the recent decline in mineral prices combined with increased inflation and renewed nationalism is causing concern as producer’s margins are squeezed. Many countries throughout the region are increasing mineral taxes and imposing other requirements on mining operators. In Africa: “As predicted, capital available to many African projects continues to increase relative to past years. Countries that have remained stable and those that address corruption and social issues have benefited from increased investment and production. More money from mineral development is going into infrastructure, social services, and better governance. In sub-Saharan and West Africa, mineral deposits continue to attract interest from a variety of large and small listed public mining companies and private capital providers, such as private equity funds as well as SOEs and sovereign wealth funds. Sub-Saharan Africa continues to be relatively stable by avoiding despotic or totalitarian regimes. Behre Dolbear predicts that investment capital will continue to be put to work in this region, as new precedents are established increasing investor interest. As noted, Zimbabwe and South Africa prove challenging for foreign and domestic investor alike as an uncertain political atmosphere detracts from mineral development.”

Finally, Asia and Australia “have continued to attract new investment although government participation in the mining sector has increased in part through government-backed companies. In particular, China’s form of neo-colonialism has resulted in a nationalistic backlash in several countries, notably Australia. China’s sphere of influence on its neighbors and their resources, while initially welcomed, is coming under increasing scrutiny resulting in foreign ownership and export restrictions. The Middle East region continues to see more mining, minerals, and metals investments as the region’s nations continue to strive to diversify and expand their economies. Low-cost energy will continue to promote the development of energy intensive industries, such as fertiliser, aluminum, and steel. In turn, these sectors consume construction materials, aggregates, ferro, and specialty alloys.”

Concluding, the supply and demand fundamentals for key minerals remain strong, in particular, due to various supply constraints highlighted by declining resource quality and falling rates of new productive capacity. The competition for mineral resources will make those countries perceived to have the lowest political risk, all other things being equal, able to attract a significant portion of the global mineral investment as well as receive a premium for their resources over countries where perceived instability exists. Behre Dolbear believes that as austerity measures begin to take the place of government stimulus in the world’s largest economies, short-term growth in the mining sector will remain highly volatile. Disconnects between supply and demand forces, caused by fast growing Asian markets, are forcing companies to increase capital costs and search for mineral deposits in difficult areas. Furthermore, an increase in regulations across all markets delays production and raises input costs. While market forces will eventually return to equilibrium, the market in 2013 will be unpredictable, but:“The long-term fundamentals, however, are unchanged and as economies rebound, we will re-visit the rapid ramp-up of commodity prices. It is probable that resolution on the direction prices take will occur before this year’s end.”