According to industry research specialists The Parker Bay Company, the market for the largest mobile equipment used by the world’s highest-producing surface miners retraced modest gains achieved at the end of last year and fell below the lowest levels recorded for the current market contraction.

Parker Bay’s Surface Mining Equipment Index fell more than 10 points from 4Q2014 and now stands at just 48.3 (1Q2007 = 100), a decline of more than 70% from the peak achieved in the first quarter of 2012.  The index measures manufacturers’ shipments of the largest mining trucks, excavating/loading equipment and several other production and support products used at the largest surface mines in more than 100 countries worldwide.  At the peak, equipment covered by the Index were valued at more than $3.5 billion.  But those shipped during the first three months of 2015 garnered suppliers little more than $1 billion.

Parker Bay calls attention to the fact that supplemental reporting by manufacturers and other sources has in the past raised initial accounting of shipments by as much as 6% and if 1Q2015 shipments are revised upward by a similar amount, the Index would read 51-52 but still the lowest recording in more than a decade.

Shipments by Product and Region

During the first three months of the year, manufacturers delivered just 551 machines vs. more than 700 over the last three months of 2014.  Mining Trucks accounted for the majority of these deliveries and also declined by a disproportionately larger percentage (-27%).  During 2012, shipments of these largest haul trucks averaged more than 1,000/quarter vs. fewer than 400 during 1Q2015.  The value of these units declined by a lesser percentage compared to 4Q2014 because a somewhat higher proportion of larger trucks were delivered in early-2015.

The number of large excavators/loaders delivered during 1Q2015 declined by a comparable degree (-23%) but the units shipped in early 2015 were substantially larger than the ones delivered in late-2014 and thus their value declined by just 8%.  Because roughly four trucks are matched with each excavator/loader in operation, and the largest shovels and excavators have longer service lives, the number of units required is typically only a fifth or less than the number of trucks.

The number of crawler and wheel dozers declined by only a modest percentage in early 2015, reflecting perhaps the shorter service lives of these machines and the lower capital expense for replacement of physically obsolete units.  While accounting for roughly one-fourth of units delivered, they represent only 11-12% of shipments value.

Regional Distribution of Shipments

There were significant shifts in the geographic destination of machine shipments between 4Q2014 and 1Q2015.  The value of units delivered to mines in Asia increased by 25% but this was entirely accounted for by a single large dragline. Such units are rare and their value ranges from USD40MM to USD100 MM or more.  Note: Because of the very irregular delivery of these draglines, they have been excluded from Parker Bay’s Index.

Deliveries to both North and Latin America increased marginally during early 2015 while Australasia, Africa and Russia/CIS all registered substantial declines.  Based on past quarter over quarter comparisons, it is hazardous to attribute such shifts between regions to any significant underlying factors.  Offsetting changes may well reverse the gains/losses between hemispheres in subsequent quarterly shipments.