Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would be boosted by A$17 billion by 2030 if it maximised its supply role in the global demand for nuclear-based cleaner energy, according to one of the country’s major uranium lobby groups. Addressing the first day in Adelaide today of the 2009 Paydirt Uranium Conference, Australian Uranium Association Executive Director, Michael Angwin, said the GDP boost would occur if the nation responded fully to the opportunities by the world’s shifting energy portfolio. This shift was moving towards the alternatives to fossil fuels – renewable and nuclear power.
“On our modelling of action to address climate change, including carbon pricing assumptions, even the more conservative of those scenarios sees demand for nuclear energy doubling by 2030. For Australia, with 38% of the world’s low-cost uranium resources and 19% of current uranium supply, this presents a range of opportunities. A full response to that would see Australia’s uranium production and exports increasing to about 37,000 t/y by 2030 – worth A$17 billion in higher GDP.
“On known commodities forecasting, Australia would generate uranium exports of 14,000 t in 2014, earning revenues of nearly A$1.7 billion, all on already known growth contributors to the world’s nuclear energy industry,” Angwin said.
Angwin outlined key issues the industry would have to address in the future: indigenous economic development, anti-proliferation and uranium stewardship. He cautioned against claiming or seeking too much influence internationally in the global nuclear power game. “This caution is not withstanding the potentially significant position we might occupy in an era of climate change, energy security and anti-proliferation initiatives. However, any influence an industry like ours seeks to leverage will always be moderated by the interests of our governments. They control our export conditions and are responsible for Australia’s foreign relations.”
One of only two companies with a current uranium mining lease in Western Australia (WA) said at the conference that the demand fundamentals for the commodity remain strong. Toro Energy’s Managing Director, Greg Hall, says global demand would be driven by continued improved utilisation of nuclear energy, extensions to the operational life of existing reactors and new reactors in the pipeline. The company – which is developing Western Australia’s Lake Way & Centipede deposit at Wiluna – and BHP Billiton with its Yeerlirrie project – are the only companies to hold uranium mining leases in WA.
Hall said that the commodities and equities markets needed to focus on the long-term uranium price of $70/Ib as this was what long-term supply contracts were written on – not spot prices of around $44/Ib currently used for short-term buyers and sellers. Hall: “Uranium demand will not ease as there are currently 439 operating nuclear plants, 43 new plants were under construction by the end of 2008 and a further 106 are now planned or ordered. That means the key uranium deposits under resource evaluation, scoping or feasibility study in WA, have considerable upside for offtake agreements.”
The lead WA projects comprise Yeelirrie (BHPB), Kintyre (Cameco/Mitsubishi joint venture), Mulga Rocks (Energy Minerals Australia), Lake Way & Centipede (Toro Energy) and Lake Maitland (Mega Uranium). In addition, Hall said, there was several thousand tonnes “nearer-term” potential in other WA deposits such as Ooobagooma (Paladin), Manyingee (Paladin), Dawson/Hinkler Well (U3O8), Nothanna (Impact Resources) and Hillview (Encounter Resources).
Hall continued by saying that Toro hoped to make a decision by third quarter this year to proceed to definitive feasibility study for Wiluna with a decision by mid 2011 to move to mine construction. He said Wiluna’s estimated maiden production was scheduled for 2012-2013. Work currently underway on the project is targeting a lift in project value to A$165 million by July this year from around A$74-78 million currently. The company has already initiated exploratory discussions on project funding, with uranium familiar and interested corporations.