Civil unrest in Guinea is likely to escalate around upcoming election cycles and impact mining operations,” according to Murtala Touray, Senior Analyst at IHS Country Risk. IHS assesses that the risk of civil unrest in Guinea is very likely to escalate around and beyond the September 24 parliamentary elections into the 2015 presidential election. Post-election rioting and protests are likely to be driven by political demands, as well as socio-economic demands and ethnic polarization. Fighting between ethnic groups is very likely in the capital and major mining towns, increasing the risks to individuals and causing major property damage.
“Given that the country is coming out of more than 50 years of dictatorship and poor management of the economy, the current government is likely to face increasing challenges to meet expectations and diffuse ethnic polarisation,” IHS says.
“In the one- to three-year outlook, sporadic violent protests and rioting are likely to increase. This will pose a high risk of operational disruptions for businesses operating in Conakry and collateral damage to mining and construction equipment outside the capital. The risk of contagion to the public sector, and consequent strikes, will increase over the same period, with the potential to add to the violence on the streets of Conakry.”
“Elections have been repeatedly postponed since their originally set date in July 2011 following the victory of President Conde (an ethnic Malinke), in the much-disputed November 2010 presidential run-off against Cellou Dalen Diallo (an ethnic Peul). The violence that marred the presidential run-off, mainly ethnically motivated violence between Malinke and Peul supporters, has continued into the organisation of the parliamentary elections.”
IHS assesses that the campaign period is likely to experience a new wave of sporadic fighting between supporters of rival candidates and running battles with security forces in Conakry, Kamsar, Boke, N’zerekore, Siguiri, Fria, and Kankan. It assesses that civil unrest is likely to increase after the parliamentary elections as the country prepares for the 2015 presidential election, driven both by opposition protests and strikes in the public sector, in particular at seaports, airports, and banks, and the private sector, especially mining and road construction.
Conde’s administration is facing growing economic and financial pressure. The multi-billion-dollar Simandou iron-ore project is facing serious delays, which will undermine the country’s projected economic growth. Moreover, the unending wave of unrest is costing the country in terms of loss of revenue and investments. According to Planning Minister Sekou Toure, the frequent unrest will, this year, cost the economy an estimated $140 million. In June, the European Union issued an ultimatum that, unless the elections were held by October 31, development funds worth $190 million would be frozen.
