A new report released this week by the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that primary world energy demand will grow 36% (1.2%/y) between 2008 and 2035 with global demand for coal increasing more than any other fuel source. IEA’s latest World Energy Outlook predicts that coal will be tapped to meet more than a third of the predicted increase in global energy demand.

The report concludes that China and India will account for more than half of the projected increase in global energy use. Energy demand from China, currently accounting for 17% of global energy, is expected to increase to 22% by 2035. The agency reported earlier this year that China had overtaken the US as the world’s largest energy consumer.

Electricity demand worldwide is projected to increase 2.2% annually between 2008 and 2035, with more than 80% of the increase coming from countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Coal remains the leading source of electricity in 2035, even with greater adoption of lower-carbon generating technologies in OECD countries, but coal’s global share of generation is expected to decrease from 41% currently to 32% in 2035 due to expansion of nuclear and renewable electricity sources. According to the IEA report’s “New Policies Scenario,” formerly known as the “reference case scenario,” electricity demand in China triples and demand in India doubles during the forecast period. At the same time, OECD country demand is expected to drop.

The IEA estimates that despite significant growth in electricity worldwide, 1.4 billion people, or more than 20% of the population globally, do not have access to electric power, and the agency projects that number will double by 2035 to 2.8 billion people. Limited access to electricity persists throughout sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.